Smart Investment - mexicomike.ca

[gabrielebo]

hi sam,
you re waiting a cY2 as you well explained. a lower december high. as you know your wiew is similar to my bearish hyp medium term, recently updated with an in deep comparison with 2008 H&S.
nevertheless, i ve just tried to have a tecnical justification of a (n eventual) higher high, which it doesnt seem out of the cards at all.
(several arguments in it, this picture is just an excerpt)

i d be very pleased having your comment about
thanks as always


_________________
gabrielebo
http://goldoilnatgas.blogspot.com

[kobv]

Hi, Sam

Thank you and waiting for updates

kobv

[samxxli]

Hi Kobv,

I personally do not want to look arrogant at this stage, gold and silver are in C wave down, and the gold market is still very fragile. Since you raise the question, I have to face it but my answer is purely hypothetical and academic and also very personal.

I tend to believe that major wave III will be the largest wave. Major wave I moved up 4.13 times from 250 to 1033, assuming major III is 1.62 of major wave I, then major wave III is expected to move up 6.7 times. Also assuming the running correction C wave down to bottom at 970, then major wave III for gold is expected to top at 6500 (6.7*970). I don’t have a formula to calculate the times, but I expect that major wave III will last 8 years.


Sam



Hi ProTicker,

You seem very keen at picking the winning stocks; please keep sharing your picks with us. IMO there will major buying opportunities in the fall (September to November) this year for gold and other markets.

Sam

[ProTicker]

Thanks Sam,

Truly I know this work is unbiased and has no special interest attached. I am trying to grasp and learn a little from your work. I look at lots of data and information with an open mind from those that have fair track records and I like your thoughts. No one is a 100% and never will be , however you do give options if case one does not play out the most likely next would be this, example

[kobv]

Hi Sam,

i more and more like your counts, have you and idea of how long Wave III for Gold will last and where it could go?
Thanks
kobv

[samxxli]

When gold price moved up from 300 in mid 2002 to 1033 in early 2008, SPX was in b wave up and index price was more than double. During 2008 gold moved down from 1033 to 680, silver from 21 to 8 and HUI from 519.6 to 150.2, SPX plunged by more than 50%. Gold and SPX maintains a positive correlation.

Prechter has been a super deflationist for decades and he expects SPX to shed (drop) by more than 90% and naturally he is bearish with gold and he consistently calls for 250 gold.

Neely has been a staunch gold bear for years and currently he expects gold to start wave e down to sub 500 gold prices after the current rally, may be that’s the reason he expects double dips for general markets to retest the 2009 lows.

I am a realistic (realistic means I understand there was and there will be large corrections along the way) gold bull and I believe gold price will eventually head for thousands of dollars. Naturally I rule out the possibility of popular call for 1929 style crash with the markets (deep deflation=depression). In fact I believe the current weakness for gold will confine in price range of 1040 to 1200 with final temporary break to downside of 970 and then follow by immediately explosive price advance of major wave III sometimes in September/October time frames of this year. The first leg up of major wave III will last until January 2012. I also expect SPX to do well during the impulsive advances of gold price due to their positive correlation, and that has also been reaffirmed by the recent resilient price actions of SPX.

Dow Index and SPX are laggards and they are 1% short of 61.8% retracements. Most other major indexes ($TRAN, $RUT, $COMPQ, $WLSH and $TSX) exceed 61.8% retracement that invalidate Zigzag ABC patterns and confirms Flat ABC patterns. B rallies for flat patterns mean the rallies may exceed A tops to new recovery highs. All indexes show only 5 waves up so far and will likely be the first part wave a up of abc Zigzag B, even if we assume wave a of abc Zigzag B topped last Friday and b retreat by 38%, c up of B can still be calculated to top at new recovery highs confirming wave (4) expanding triangle patterns.



The Markets have been populated by crash mood since May 2009, I took minority view and looked at the charts from another angle and surprisingly I saw very bullish charts patterns with various markets, and they all seem on the journey up to recover the previous all times highs.

Here is the chart for Nasdaq composite ($COMPQ), the current rally has retraced 78.48% of 2007 high, the index has moved up by almost 100% from 2009 low, if the last leg up after mid way correction is also double in price, then we expect to see the index to reach 4000 to 4500.

I also see the potential for price double or more in $SSEC (China index), $CDNX (Toronto juniors shares), $NATGAS (Natural Gas) in c wave up of B.



The SPX chart shows the roadmap in times and magnitude that I expect for next few months. SPX is currently in wave a up of abc Zigzag B. Wave 4 and 2 were similar in price and times and the waves for 1 and 3 were overlapped, this means that the advance since March 2009 low was corrective and the 5 waves up can only be counted as wave a up of abc moves.

The large pullback last Friday was wave iv down of 5 up, the 10 minutes chart (not shown) call for SPX in lower degree wave iv triangle up with another leg down to lower low to 1180 or even 1170.

SPX pullbacks have been short and shallow, I am not surprised to see that the low may also be in and there is also the possibility that this is only the first part of a more complex wave iv corrective pattern. Nevertheless wave v up of 5 up will follow to finish wave a up.

If SPX continues to plunge with force next week, then we must assume that wave a up was in and midway b correction is in progress.



The gold chart that I posted last week is still current. Gold is currently in midway correction b down of last leg Y up. There is clearly another leg Y up to finish wave 2 up of C down. This is another reason I also expect another leg up for SPX after current pullback.

The hourly gold chart shows the short term move. It seems that there will be another leg down to new low to finish midway b correction. It is also possible that gold will be at bottoming process without dropping to new low next couple of days to finish mid way b correction.

I bought back some gold shares when HUI was at 421 last Friday, will buy more if price drops beginning of next weeks is orderly and correctly.


Happy Trading,
Sam

[Dsquare]

BTW, good luck with wave 4 expanding triangle correction for SPX, Neely hadn't ever seen one when he wrote his book although I think he thought they might be possible. But since the e wave of an expanding triangle doesn't like to be retraced how do you get to new highs except maybe with a very lazy (slow developing) terminal 5? Just something to think about.
_________________
If We Had Some Global Warming
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qJUFTm6cJXM

Hide the Decline
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WMqc7PCJ-nc

[Dsquare]

In addition my counts are on the HUI, I fiddle with gold.
_________________
If We Had Some Global Warming
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qJUFTm6cJXM

Hide the Decline
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WMqc7PCJ-nc

[Dsquare]

[samxxli]

Markets still have big concerns for crash, there is always the risk. Anything can happen with the markets. It helps if someone so convinced can start a thread on markets meltdown. I always believe this forum will be much stronger if we all can expose to various diverse views.

I started my own thread of elliott wave on gold in early 2005 to offer a bullish alternate count to Dsquare’s bearish count even thought I was not prepared and honestly believed I was not qualified (didn’t even know how to do a chart) at the time, but I strongly believed gold was on strong bull move and this forum desperately needed a bullish count in addition to Dsquare’s bearish count.

I came back with my own thread in mid 2007 and post regularly because I saw a void in this forum and I hope I can offer a realistic bullish view on gold to complement the super bullish view of Coach and the bearish view of Dsquare. This forum is much more balanced now on gold with various diverse views.



SPX behaved much more resilient than I thought and it also reaffirms my call that the uptrend since March 9 2009 low will continue to new recovery high before it is done.

SPX can start a 3% decline right now or it can continue to move up unabated to higher high. I am not doing a short term chart and instead include a long term count that I posted three week ago. The chart is still current. I expect the current rally of wave 5 up of wave a zigzag to continue until mid to late May with target of 1250 to 1300.

The charts shows wave (4) expanding triangle correction for SPX, wave d up to new recovery high is unfolding now following by wave e down to new crash low. The chart fits perfectly to Tom McClellan’s chart based on cycle’s analysis.

There are numerous evidences to support my long term count of SPX. I posted the counts for Dow, SPX, CDNX, SSEC (China Index), TSX, the declines leading to March 2009 lows for them wre all 3 waves down, the subsequent rallies (B or d) can retrace anywhere from 62.8% to 100% plus. The first legs down of A for gold, silver and HUI were all 3 waves down and the subsequent B rallies for them were 156%, 85% and 99% respectively.

Current SPX and Dow Index retrace 58.5, Dow Transport ($TRAN) and Russell 2000 small cap ($RUT) retrace 70%, NASDAQ composite ($COMPQ) retraces 74% and TSX retraces 62%. They are all still in first leg wave a up of abc Zigzag and wave c up tends to equal a up and that give us good indications that the eventual D or B rallies up will top at new recovery highs.

http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?$HSI
If we are objective, we can see the current choppy prices actions for $HSI (Hong Kong Index), $SSEC and numerous other emerging markets were corrective and the next major forces for them are up after the current choppy sideways prices actions (corrections) are over.



http://www.safehaven.com/artic.....strategies
Neely has published a count on SPX. Full text can be found in attached link, I reproduced the chart as above. The chart shows Neely is expecting near term retreat to retest March 9 2009 low.

I am not impressed by either Neely or Prechter’s records. They both advised their clients to short gold when gold moved up explosively from 400 to 730. They both did not expect the explosively run up from 1994 to Jan 2000 for general markets. They were bearish.

Most of waves counts in cyber space I am aware belong to 1929 style crash camp targeting 1000 Dow. I am the only one to call for wave (4) expanding triangle corrections for general markets with current rally to new recovery high and I am the only one who dare to say that NASDAQ Composite ($COMPQ) to reach 4000 to 5000 (Will post a chart in future) and that makes me comfortable to be in the minority camp.



Gold is still in wave 2 up of wave C down. As shown in the chart, it seems that gold has a near term pullback before starting another run to the upside.




Happy Trading,
Sam

[ProTicker]

Hi Steelpiston,

First off I appreciate your views also. Let me get this out of the way second: I can never measure up to Smaxxli's technical wave counts. I am not advanced in that way/ I do read Dsquare and Samxxli with an open mind. The use of technical analysis while not proven science , mixed with fundamental analysis can carry one far ,if your a short term trader.

Think the market is dangerous, historically, it is about out of gas. It is a turtoise rally. Oil firmed up starting last week and I dove in right after market open with
Abraxas Petroleum Corporation
(NasdaqCM: AXAS) up.12 to $2.14 at close. If market & oil hold up we may get to $2.35 to $2.50. Has done so twice since Dec. 09

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=axas

Volume is up over 350% from it's 3 month norm. On that note this is one observation I wanted to make about volume and this market.

For most all gold issues the volume was 1/3 to 1/2 of their 3 month norm. Example: FCX Freeport Mcmoran 11 million compared to 17 million.

GG Gold corp 7 million compared to 9 mill. Barrick 6.8 mill verse 11 mill.

Nova Gold , 1.6 mill verse's 2.7 for 3 month average.

Hecla mining HL , 1.2 mill volume verse's 2.1 mill shares.

With few exception you get the picture. This historically suggest prices that are going up on much lower share volume than 3 month norms has weak , anemic price support. All has to happen is a number of one of anything: example , market sell off, correction, or Sovereign debt crsis explosion surprise.

http://seekingalpha.com/articl.....urce=yahoo

I was thinking also a quick sale off in gold price . That could easily do it also. Now some like Clive Maund suggest we are at the cross roads of MAYBE, NOT for SURE, a possible breakout. I would say he moved to nuetral to slightly positive from a sell.

I am staying close to the trigger on trades. No stop loss's in place since I stay close to the market review 5 minutes every hour now. Also keep a core of silver/gold miners long and continue to buy junk silver and gold in different forms .
_________________
The world is littered with unsustainable debt. And global de-leveraging is still in the early stages.

[steelpiston71]

Sam and Pro, I agree with most of the ideas and forecasts you comment about.

The 40 yr chart overlay is interesting, it's too bad we can't fall back on charts from 1873 to 1879 during the depression caused by a deflationary credit collapse in the US, which is the most apt parallel I can draw to what is happening now and what is going to happen. There was no market at that time like now, so we have to guess:

At some point, there will be a major flashpoint that happens, could be tomorrow or 2011, no one knows. The floor on the US Markets will give way and there will be no buyers. Race to the exits on a large scale. Everything will go down fast, that would include stocks, gold, interest rates, you name it. Except the Dollar, which will rise in a parabolic blowoff fashion. The dust will begin to settle just as quickly as the melt up in some areas. The dollar will make it's final descent into extinction, interest rates will rise upwards of 15 to 20%, Gold will rise to new levels. The markets however, will remain stagnant until it's decided what we are going to do with our currency and with our current form of government.

California has a 1/2T State Pension Shortfall, they are 3% of the Worlds GDP.

Today the 10 Year hit 4%, this is not a good sign. $3 Gas will be back this week, also not a good sign for the markets and the 'recovery' that has been fueled by Government Debt. Speaking of which, March 2010 Debt was about $330B, or 4T yoy. That's about 1/3 of GDP resulting from Debt. Does that sound like something that can be accurately rhymed via with other periods in US financial history? It shouldn't.

I could go on and on.

Short Term charts, up to a year or so, fibs, currencies, oil, etc, are the indicators to follow.

I don't see how multi-year, multi-decade cycles are going to prove helpful in this unique environment, but I'll continue to look for them and comment.

Steel

[samxxli]

[ProTicker]

Keep thinking that we are in 1930 all over again. http://iws.ccccd.edu/kwilkison.....rTruck.jpg

Only reason why we are not there so sudden again is regulations and USA is a world currency. it has cushioned and stalled the day of reckoning.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/.....53816.html

Looking for the second dip. S&P 500 should be in for a second dive like fall of 2008, fall of 1929 inially , then 1930 second crash.. It may happen or it may be gradual. Dont know for sure. just things are to anemic in many categories.

Read the article but, Look at the chart. http://www.lowrisk.com/29crash.htm

Only reason why we are dragging it out now in time is, already mentioned. In 1929 crash the market bounced up but by early 1930 just before summer , after the bounce up , it crashed HARD. Never to return till WWII. Are we NOW in that repeated historic BOUNCE UP, then crash!!!??? Think so. just to be cautious.

Some big difference's in 1930's & now. USA was THEN: GOLD rich. Government was not in debt. most people lived on farms and helped one another. Cropped shared and so on. What about now? They are food stamp dependent and urban dependent instead of ruraul, living where one could survive , raise animals etc. and live by basic life necessities. Not in the modern urban setting today.

If so then we should see Juniors dive also. Staying in cash for the crash

If that be as it may: We need to keep some cash for the crash. I am in 50% cash. I want to buy KSK.V Kiska n Exploration and companies like that on the cheap after this second crash. Then I will stay long. Only thing worth mentioning here that I am long in and stay that way is a reduced share of Impact Silver, and USA.V, United states silver. of any sizable amount.

Load up time if true and plays out like history and saturated markets suggest at present. what rose up out of the ashes after this second suckers rally, like now and thus a crash afterwards was , gold & silver miners. That's us!!

I invite comments here on this subject and other contrarian viewpoints.

Cheers to all to prosperity so the liberals can tax the HEEEE l out of it!!! No they are

ProTicker
_________________
The world is littered with unsustainable debt. And global de-leveraging is still in the early stages.

[samxxli]

Wave v (blue) ending diagonal for SPX seems still alive. We may see new high soon. Chart as above.

Gold’s breakout still has not been confirmed by HUI (and SPTGD), HUI still seems to want to go down; also EURO seems to want to dip lower. I wait until the picture is clear with pm markets.



Sam