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Smart Investment - mexicomike.ca
Canadian Junior Gold and Silver Companies
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Dsquare
Joined: 19 Jun 2004
Posts: 7867
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 Posted: Wed Dec 02, 2009 11:19 pm Post subject: |
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HUI and gold (charts from yesterday). Preferred count for the HUI, in or finished wave iii, this morning's high touched the upper line (these lines are tentative just to emphasize the count). Gold, I think this is making a blow-off diamond diametric. So two waves for each to go once the current wave is done (iv and v, iv needs to overlap with ii) and f and g.
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Dsquare
Joined: 19 Jun 2004
Posts: 7867
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| Posted: Wed Dec 02, 2009 11:05 pm Post subject: |
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Hi Shuk, thanks for the question. Wave e's of triangles don't normally break above the b-d line before the wave completed its formation. To have E begin in 2006, it would do just that. Also usually waves begin with a sudden move down (or up) that is faster and further than any counter-trend subwave in the previous wave and the wave down in 2006 wasn't that severe. So I would not have wave E begin in 2006. Elliot wave only really works on major indexes that are widely followed, and I wouldn't use the juniors to decide where we are in terms of wave count. In a way they can tend to confirm or increase the chances of the count being right in how they act, for instance the last wave of D which finished the large neutral triangle was confirmed in a way because of lack of breadth (juniors weren't participating and some other broader gold stock indexes were looking sick).
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Shuk
Joined: 25 Jan 2007
Posts: 5
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| Posted: Wed Dec 02, 2009 9:12 pm Post subject: |
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Ds
Is there a chance that E wave on the HUI started in 2006, and ended late last year? The junior PM stocks seem to suggest that - they hit their high early in 2006 and retraced almost their entire advance from 2000, late last year. So what we are seeing here is the start of the bull phase (first phase).
The HUI seems to be taking a leadership role just like it did from 2001-2004 where it went from 35 to 250+ (and where the junior PMs really didnt start their run until 2004).
I see the stats that say there are 97% bulls - its just that I dont see it - everybody seems to be cautious. The juniors also dont imply any froth whatsoever - they are trading at prices when gold was sub $400. There is a major disconnect somewhere - one of them is terribly wrong.
Anyways, I am interested in your thoughts about this. |
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Dsquare
Joined: 19 Jun 2004
Posts: 7867
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| Posted: Tue Dec 01, 2009 11:18 pm Post subject: |
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| Quote: | One number to respect is HUI 467. The HUI closed just above this number in Nov. If Dec. trades above this level and holds it on a monthly closing basis, think twice about shorting other than for ST trades. HUI holding above 467 is blue sky IMO.
That doesn't mean I am trading the sector long here, just that it is a very important level. It would lead to a new HUI range of 467 - 611. |
John, If we get a new range of 467-611, I'm taking a vacation from this thread.
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Hide the Decline
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Dsquare
Joined: 19 Jun 2004
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| Posted: Tue Dec 01, 2009 11:08 pm Post subject: |
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| Quote: | | Derek, i sold what i bought today at the close for nothing....we should be going down but this high level consolidation today and the marginal close over the 5 year resistance trendline on the HUI made me want to reduce risk. |
I agree on the reduce risk idea. I got out of my 1/2 position with a very minor loss, but lowered my stop on the other half which may have been a mistake. I'm playing the first count and will raise my stop if I can, such that if the second count (still in wave iii) is in play I'll reduce my loss.
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Hide the Decline
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WMqc7PCJ-nc |
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Dsquare
Joined: 19 Jun 2004
Posts: 7867
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| Posted: Tue Dec 01, 2009 10:43 pm Post subject: global warming’s dangerous parallels to eugenics |
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| Quote: | Best-selling author Michael Crichton became a noted critic of the highly-politicized ‘global warming’ agenda before his death in 2008. What has now shifted into the “climate change” issue was a central theme in his 2004 novel State of Fear.
Crichton warns that ‘global warming’– which has become both a cause célèbre and a supposed moral imperative– not only has “little basis in fact or science” but compromised by political advocacy and a ‘quest for power.’
That fatal flaw for the global warming agenda is, for Crichton, paralleled by one of history’s ‘cautionary tales’– that of the Eugenics movement. The dangers of a political agenda parading under the cover of a scientific pretext have already been exposed by the agendas of the past, and that cost can be measured in human lives lost.
On Eugenics, Crichton states that “the actions taken in the name of theory were morally and criminally wrong. Ultimately, they led to the deaths of millions of people.”
The alarm bells sounded by Al Gore and his ilk may come with a price– a loss of sovereignty to global treaties, restricted human behavior and a negative, or disposable, view of human life. The fudged data of CRU researchers who, ClimateGate emails show, sought to “hide the decline” in global temperatures is yet another indicator of a movement gone wrong and quickly spiralling out of control. For humanity’s sake, we cannot lose sight of what the truth really is when we are coaxed into a ’state of fear’ to accept totalitarian and sometimes genocidal solutions.
Why Politicized Science is Dangerous
Michael Crichton
Imagine that there is a new scientific theory that warns of an impending crisis, and points to a way out. I don’t mean global warming. I’m talking about another theory, which rose to prominence a century ago.
Its supporters included Theodore Roosevelt, Woodrow Wilson, and Winston Churchill. It was approved by Supreme Court justices Oliver Wendell Holmes and Louis Brandeis, who ruled in its favor. The famous names who supported it included Alexander Graham Bell, inventor of the telephone; activist Margaret Sanger; botanist Luther Burbank; Leland Stanford, founder of Stanford University; the novelist H. G. Wells; the playwright George Bernard Shaw; and hundreds of others. Nobel Prize winners gave support. Research was backed by the Carnegie and Rockefeller Foundations. The Cold Springs Harbor Institute was built to carry out this research, but important work was also done at Harvard, Yale, Princeton, Stanford and Johns Hopkins. Legislation to address the crisis was passed in states from New York to California.
All in all, the research, legislation and molding of public opinion surrounding the theory went on for almost half a century. Those who opposed the theory were shouted down and called reactionary, blind to reality, or just plain ignorant. But in hindsight, what is surprising is that so few people objected.
Today, we know that this famous theory that gained so much support was actually pseudo science. The crisis it claimed was nonexistent. And the actions taken in the name of theory were morally and criminally wrong. Ultimately, they led to the deaths of millions of people.
The theory was eugenics, and its history is so dreadful — and, to those who were caught up in it, so embarrassing — that it is now rarely discussed. But it is a story that should be well know to every citizen, so that its horrors are not repeated.
The theory of eugenics postulated a crisis of the gene pool leading to the deterioration of the human race. The best human beings were not breeding as rapidly as the inferior ones — the foreigners, immigrants, Jews, degenerates, the unfit, and the “feeble minded.” Francis Galton, a respected British scientist, first speculated about this area, but his ideas were taken far beyond anything he intended. They were adopted by science-minded Americans, as well as those who had no interest in science but who were worried about the immigration of inferior races early in the twentieth century — “dangerous human pests” who represented “the rising tide of imbeciles” and who were polluting the best of the human race…
Now we are engaged in a great new theory that once again has drawn the support of politicians, scientists, and celebrities around the world. Once again, the measures being urged have little basis in fact or science…
I am not arguing that global warming is the same as eugenics. But the similarities are not superficial. And I do claim that open and frank discussion of the data, and of the issues, is being suppressed.
The past history of human belief is a cautionary tale. But as Alston Chase put it, “when the search for truth is confused with political advocacy, the pursuit of knowledge is reduced to the quest for power.”
That is the danger we now face. And this is why the intermixing of science and politics is a bad combination, with a bad history. We must remember the history, and be certain that what we present to the world as knowledge is disinterested and honest. |
http://www.infowars.com/late-a.....-eugenics/
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If We Had Some Global Warming
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qJUFTm6cJXM
Hide the Decline
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wxman
Joined: 08 Nov 2005
Posts: 47
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navyblue
Joined: 05 Jan 2007
Posts: 693
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| Posted: Tue Dec 01, 2009 5:36 pm Post subject: |
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| Quote: | | In fact I gave up on doing much of anything at all. |
Maybe you're on to something there John  .Still, it's a new day tomorrow. |
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SilentOne
Joined: 26 Jun 2004
Posts: 1434
Location: Aurora, Ontario
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| Posted: Tue Dec 01, 2009 4:37 pm Post subject: re: HUI |
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hi guys,
No kidding! I gave up shorting weeks ago. In fact I gave up on doing much of anything at all. 
One number to respect is HUI 467. The HUI closed just above this number in Nov. If Dec. trades above this level and holds it on a monthly closing basis, think twice about shorting other than for ST trades. HUI holding above 467 is blue sky IMO.
That doesn't mean I am trading the sector long here, just that it is a very important level. It would lead to a new HUI range of 467 - 611.
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cheers,
john |
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navyblue
Joined: 05 Jan 2007
Posts: 693
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| Posted: Tue Dec 01, 2009 4:15 pm Post subject: |
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navyblue
Joined: 05 Jan 2007
Posts: 693
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| Posted: Tue Dec 01, 2009 4:07 pm Post subject: |
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| Derek, i sold what i bought today at the close for nothing.SPX chart is a mess, GLD has a doji over a gap to close the day(with all the right divergences), we should be going down but this high level consolidation today and the marginal close over the 5 year resistance trendline on the HUI made me want to reduce risk.Difficult market. |
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Dsquare
Joined: 19 Jun 2004
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navyblue
Joined: 05 Jan 2007
Posts: 693
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| Posted: Tue Dec 01, 2009 12:27 pm Post subject: |
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Cost averaged here (HGD) at 3.60.Risky trade as the shares are leading; the stop is obvious and tight. |
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navyblue
Joined: 05 Jan 2007
Posts: 693
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| Posted: Tue Dec 01, 2009 11:54 am Post subject: |
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| I had not, but the 1,618 extension of c was around these levels we've been the last couple of days.Eyeballing the 2,618 extension, it's around $1260-65. |
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Dsquare
Joined: 19 Jun 2004
Posts: 7867
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