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Dsquare
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Dsquare
Joined: 19 Jun 2004
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 Posted: Fri Sep 03, 2010 8:31 pm Post subject: End Of The 'Equity Cult' |
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Looks like the SPX rally is on (Neely's final c wave?) Still have 8 to 10+ years of wave 4 for US equities.
| Quote: | How far could this go? A reduction in equity holdings back to pre-1959 levels (around 20% of total assets) would indicate considerable selling pressure to come. For US private sector pension funds alone, that would imply a further $1900bn reduction in equity weightings. The story looks similar amongst retail investors. Equity inflows into US mutual funds have not recovered from the 2007-09 bear market (Figure 5). European equity inflows never recovered from the 2000-03 bear market (Figure 6).
The evidence suggests that there could still be considerable institutional selling to come. |
http://www.zerohedge.com/artic.....ows-stocks
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Dsquare
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| Posted: Fri Sep 03, 2010 3:01 pm Post subject: |
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Just starting to look at this bullish possibility. I said in May that perhaps a contracting triangle was starting to form with the large drop we had. Also noticed a potential triangle for c of b (not sure I like a triangle here). I'll look at this some more.
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If We Had Some Global Warming
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qJUFTm6cJXM
Hide the Decline
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WMqc7PCJ-nc |
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Dsquare
Joined: 19 Jun 2004
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| Posted: Fri Sep 03, 2010 12:57 pm Post subject: |
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Thanks guys. Decided to get colorful here. Summarizes the competing counts. Possible have a zigzag-x-neutral triangle here to finish the wave but not sure I want to try to short it. These classical breakouts or fake breakouts often build up the tension so there might be a bit more time for this to resolve. Navy, that looks to make some logical sense but I'm not fond of a wave a with such a slowly developing structure.
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If We Had Some Global Warming
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qJUFTm6cJXM
Hide the Decline
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WMqc7PCJ-nc |
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SilentOne
Joined: 26 Jun 2004
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Location: Aurora, Ontario
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SilentOne
Joined: 26 Jun 2004
Posts: 1434
Location: Aurora, Ontario
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| Posted: Thu Sep 02, 2010 10:45 pm Post subject: re: gold top? |
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hi guys,
I could be way off here, but are we about to see the fear trade (ie. long gold) collapse? Bonds have already topped and I can see this extending to gold very quickly.
It's just a hunch and it might be an interesting short play. I'll wait until either Friday or early next week for a cue and an action signal.
I have to admit that I am for some reason quite shy of gold here. Something is not quite right and I can't put my finger on it. The foremost consideration is that breakout expectations are high, and that is usually the death knell for gold.
GL/GT.
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navyblue
Joined: 05 Jan 2007
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| Posted: Thu Sep 02, 2010 9:16 pm Post subject: |
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Kevin Warwick is the closer thing to today's God. |
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Dsquare
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Dsquare
Joined: 19 Jun 2004
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Dsquare
Joined: 19 Jun 2004
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Dsquare
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SilentOne
Joined: 26 Jun 2004
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Location: Aurora, Ontario
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| Posted: Thu Sep 02, 2010 9:10 am Post subject: re: SPX Cycles |
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hi Derek,
Been posting a lot of my SPX cycle thoughts. My view is that we are in a distribution phase that is not over. It also agrees with Neely's last SPX count he posted recently.
http://www.traders-talk.com/mb.....pic=123132
The way things are going, I expect the $TSX to make a new high by the time this is all over.
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Dsquare
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Dsquare
Joined: 19 Jun 2004
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Dsquare
Joined: 19 Jun 2004
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