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Dsquare
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Dsquare
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Dsquare
Joined: 19 Jun 2004
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 Posted: Thu Sep 09, 2010 1:49 am Post subject: |
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Zero hedge:
| Quote: | This is getting really ridiculous. In the week ended September 1, domestic equity mutual funds saw $7.5 billion in outflows: the biggest one week outflow in 2010 since the $13.4 billion redeemed in the Flash Crash week. The trend developing is simple: retail investors withdraw increasingly greater numbers in weeks in which the market is down even a little, and withdraw just a little in weeks in which the low-volume melt up presents them with an opportunity to get out at a better price level. Of course, the common thread is that as we have said for 18 consecutive weeks, retail just wants out. And now that, courtesy of Mary Schapiro, retail has finally put two and two together, and knows that even the regulators are concerned about redemptions, which are perceived by the SEC as being a function of distrust in market structure, we now fully expect more and more redemptions.
Year to Date the total pulled out is a whopping $62 billion, incidentally with both inflows and the market having peaked at the same time in April. On thr other hand, if the market were tracking mutual fund redemptions (whose net liquidity is now down to just 3.5% of assets and getting worse by the day), the S&P would be in the 900 range. Once the destructive impact of the Fed's daily meddling in the stock market is eliminated, it will get there. The longer stocks are artificially held up at current artificial levels, the greater the crash when reality and anti-gravity finally meet. |
http://www.zerohedge.com/artic.....ek-record-
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Dsquare
Joined: 19 Jun 2004
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| Posted: Thu Sep 09, 2010 1:44 am Post subject: |
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Part of the speech by Mary Schapiro, chairman of the Securities and Exchange Commission
| Quote: | Many individual investors, for example, have submitted comments to the Commission that are highly critical of the current market structure. Retail broker-dealers have told us that their customers — individual investors — have pulled back from participating in the equity markets since May 6. Indeed, according to mutual fund data, every single week since May 6 has seen an outflow of funds from equity mutual funds.
I recognize that there may be a variety of reasons for reduced participation in the equity markets, but the trend is troubling, particularly if concerns about equity market structure are playing even a small role in investor decision-making.
To understand where individual investors are coming from, we must truly recognize the impact of severe price volatility on their interests: one example is the use and impact of stop loss orders on May 6. Stop loss orders are designed to help limit losses by selling a stock when it drops below a specified price, and are a safety tool used by many individual investors to limit losses.
The fundamental premise of these orders is to rely on the integrity of market prices to signal when the investor should sell a holding. On May 6, this reliance proved misplaced and the use of this tool backfired.
A staggering total of more than $2 billion in individual investor stop loss orders is estimated to have been triggered during the half hour between 2:30 and 3 p.m. on May 6. As a hypothetical illustration, if each of those orders were executed at a very conservative estimate of 10 percent less than the closing price, then those individual investors suffered losses of more than $200 million compared to the closing price on that day.
Institutional investors, also have expressed serious reservations about the current equity market structure. At our June roundtable discussion of market structure issues, several institutional investors questioned whether our market structure meets their need to trade efficiently and fairly, in large size. |
http://sec.gov/news/speech/2010/spch090710mls.htm
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Dsquare
Joined: 19 Jun 2004
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| Posted: Thu Sep 09, 2010 12:35 am Post subject: |
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Post I made re SPX at Planet Yelnick
| Quote: | | Yelnick, you made an interesting observation in your last post which concerns Neely's count. Neely's count is suspect since August's decline doesn't show a convincing impulse down (nor a terminal impulse). I think Neely would say that because the 5th is truncated one of the other waves is extended, but that is a bit beside the point in that usually truncations of wave 5 occur when 3 is clearly extended (at least 1.618x of 1) and wave 4 retraces a considerable amount of wave 3 (that didn't happen). This current wave up should be an impulsive wave c if an ending flat is being made. I would expect that it would rise faster than the b wave of the second flat (double flat is Neely's count for the down move) so the longer it hesitates at 1100 the more likely Neely's count is wrong. An alternate count is the flat-x-triangle (x ending early June and not later in June as in Neely's count). Currently in d of e (e a neutral or expanding triangle). So it would still be possible to see 950+/- if e is an expanding triangle. The only thing (and DG can comment) that would make this count suspect is the length of time taken for phase 1 and phase 2 of the complex wave (phase 2 as a triangle might be taking too long). Not sure if Neely has ever commented on how much difference in time is allowed between the two phases of a complex correction. Do you know DG? |
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If We Had Some Global Warming
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Hide the Decline
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WMqc7PCJ-nc |
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Dsquare
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Dsquare
Joined: 19 Jun 2004
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| Posted: Wed Sep 08, 2010 12:52 pm Post subject: |
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Hi John, thanks for the info. This count may work, has a few problems. Wave e as a contracting triangle (with reverse alternation). Unless this wave somehow ends a larger wave, there should be a thrust of ~50% but the contracting triangle says perhaps more (464 is 100% of a).
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If We Had Some Global Warming
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qJUFTm6cJXM
Hide the Decline
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WMqc7PCJ-nc |
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SilentOne
Joined: 26 Jun 2004
Posts: 1436
Location: Aurora, Ontario
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| Posted: Wed Sep 08, 2010 12:13 pm Post subject: re: Silver short |
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hi guys,
Bought a little HZD.TO today. Small position and I will look to add.
Silver will correct at some point soon into a 56 and 27 month cycle low this fall.
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cheers,
john |
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Dsquare
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navyblue
Joined: 05 Jan 2007
Posts: 694
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| Posted: Tue Sep 07, 2010 2:54 pm Post subject: |
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Derek, i'm watching it too as it evolves.Due to some mundane currency related issues with my new broker, i've stopped the quick trades on the pm's and focus on the main markets.I'm looking for position trades in this market and i'm getting interested here.
John, on the face of it the charts look juicy for a short now.But this is personally detering me:(it's intraday btw)
The McCllelan is showing some strength today as well. |
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Dsquare
Joined: 19 Jun 2004
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Dsquare
Joined: 19 Jun 2004
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| Posted: Tue Sep 07, 2010 2:28 pm Post subject: |
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Hi John, looks like negative divergence setting up. I think we are still in wave e of an expanding triangle and I was thinking that wave-e might be making a contracting triangle (in wave c now with a wedge-like triangle for c forming) instead of a combination (the combination is a bit unbalanced in time, I had preferred the 3 days and 5 days, now we are running into 3 and 7). Yet I'm not sure how a contracting triangle would fit here. But yeah, I'm looking to short somewhere here (but could have d and e to go).
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If We Had Some Global Warming
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qJUFTm6cJXM
Hide the Decline
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WMqc7PCJ-nc |
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SilentOne
Joined: 26 Jun 2004
Posts: 1436
Location: Aurora, Ontario
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| Posted: Tue Sep 07, 2010 2:00 pm Post subject: re: HGD |
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Derek,
Short here? I took an initial position in HGD this morning. I'm looking for a very quick 10% correction.
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cheers,
john |
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Dsquare
Joined: 19 Jun 2004
Posts: 7884
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| Posted: Tue Sep 07, 2010 11:15 am Post subject: |
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Hi Navy, I just realized that the new bear possibility for the HUI I was looking at is very similar to your count on gold you posted so I think you might be onto something there. I had forgotten what you had posted Friday. My bad for not taking your count more seriously.
_________________
If We Had Some Global Warming
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qJUFTm6cJXM
Hide the Decline
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WMqc7PCJ-nc |
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Dsquare
Joined: 19 Jun 2004
Posts: 7884
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